UPDATED (24/6/22) - By-Election Defeats - EXPLAINER: Boris Johnson Vote of No Confidence - How Are Somerset's Tory MPs Likely To Vote?

 

Standing Up For Residents

UPDATED (24/6/22):

The Conservatives have lost two seats in Parliamentary by-elections overnight. The winners and losers are coming out with the usual hyperbole. The impact on the two constituencies - Wakefield in West Yorkshire and Tiverton & Honiton in East Devon, might be negligible. 

But the scale of the defeats, the no-confidence vote (reported below), the dire situation of the lame duck Prime Minister and his Government, and these being the latest reminders of what the people of this country think of them, could mean that Tory MPs think they must now act to save their own skins and their own seats in Parliament.

The moment may be coming that Boris Johnson will have to be dragged "kicking and screaming from Downing Street" in the words of Tory MP David Davis, who also invoked the call for Neville Chamberlain to go.

Leader of Somerset Independents, Andrew Pope, says:

Andrew Pope, Leader of Somerset Independents

 

"The Tory MP 1922 (Backbench) Committee Deputy Chair, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown has said that they will have to make 'difficult decisions'.

I do not think this means rearranging the chairs in the Westminster committee rooms.

While the local people who suffered the by-elections may not benefit from the short-lived promises made by the Lib Dems, Labour or the Tories and the intense attention of the by-elections, this could be the next step in the end of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.

But before people get excited about having a Labour Government, or whatever comes next, let me say again:

Labour, Lib Dem or Tory, same old story. They will always let you down."  

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UPDATED (9/6/22):

National newspaper The Mirror has largely confirmed the accuracy of our assessments. We used their very helpful search facility and it verified the assessments that we provided for Somerset's hundreds of thousands of residents to refer to - whether now or in the future when they come to vote.

We include The Mirror's assessments below to prove our accuracy. But we say again - it was a secret ballot, so we will never know for sure. We can only predict based on evidence. If you know more, please let us know by getting in touch (click the link).

Why did we do this? As a service to the people of Somerset, because we were formed to stand up for residents.

Are we paid? No, we are volunteers. The Mirror has massive resources, as do the local media. Yet we are the only ones providing this service, while local media either do not report it at all, or make errors or omissions.

Join us to help out in holding MPs to account, by contacting us.

"Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	Somerton and Frome	David Warburton	N/A
Not applicable as not a Conservative MP
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	Yeovil	Marcus Fysh	UNCLEAR
[Contacted for comment]
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	Taunton Deane	Rebecca Pow	FOR
Didn't explicitly state her vote but tweeted just before the result: "On env no Gov has ever done more : net zero, renewables, tackling climate change, the nature crash, water pollution; let’s keep delivering on this & critical calls @conservatives are getting right; & locally : Musgrove & A358 upgrades, welly station & cycleway @BorisJohnson"
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Ian Liddell-Grainger	AGAINST
"I believe he should step down for the good of the country. That is the only way to resolve this intolerable situation which is damaging both the Government’s ability to govern and the UK’s reputation on the world stage."
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	Wells	James Heappey	FOR
"I’ve been uncomfortable with much of what’s emerged about events in No 10 during Covid lockdowns. But UK faces enormous economic & security challenges that can’t be wished away. This is time for Govt to deliver not squabble amongst itself. I’ll be supporting the PM this evening."
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	North Somerset	Liam Fox	UNCLEAR
Did not specify his vote publicly but told a constituent the PM still had his support a week earlier, according to local media
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	North East Somerset	Jacob Rees-Mogg	FOR
"The time for navel-gazing has ended. The British people gave Boris a mandate, Tory MPs would be wise to accept it."
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
Con	Weston-super-Mare	John Penrose	AGAINST
While he hasn't confirmed how he voted, he resigned as the PM's anti-corruption champion and urged the Prime Minister to resign, saying breaking the ministerial code was "a resigning matter."
Party	Constituency	Name	Vote
LD	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	N/A
Not applicable as not a Conservative MP"

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UPDATED (6/6/22):

RESULT:

For:

211 (58.8%)

Against:

148 (41.2%)

All 359 members of the Conservative Parliamentary Group of MPs voted.

If you are aware of any statements made by any of the below MPs relating to how they would vote, that we have not included below, please let us know via our Contact Form or via our Contact Page. 

We have provided this service as we are volunteers for Somerset who stand up for residents. 

We believe that it is vital that the residents of Somerset - who are also constituents of each MP - know how their MP voted.

Then residents can form their own view as to whether their MP represented their views on Boris Johnson.

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The Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to face a vote of (no) confidence at 6pm on Monday 6th June 2022. 

Sir Graham Brady, the Chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs, confirmed in public that the threshold had been exceeded early in the morning.

The vote was confirmed as triggered after at least 54 Conservative MPs had submitted a letter of no confidence in Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party.

As the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is not elected directly, it is Conservatives that decide the Leader of their Party.

This is an internal vote for the Conservative Party's MPs under the Party's rules and the rules of the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs.

How Are Somerset's Tory MPs Likely To Vote?

It is a secret ballot of Conservative MPs. To reiterate, it is an internal vote without independent oversight. Here is an assessment of the MPs for Somerset, with any statements made in public given.

They are only predictions, not statements of fact as we will never know how they voted.

North Somerset - Liam Fox MP - Conservative. Position unknown as at 1148 hours. Supporter of Brexit. Likely to vote to support Boris Johnson, due to the Statement he made on the Sue Gray Report on 31st May 2022, including:

"I do not believe, however, that all this makes the case for the removal of the Prime Minister with all the attendant disruption of government, especially at a time of such international importance, economically and militarily, where Britain’s voice needs to be heard."

Weston-Super-Mare - John Penrose MP - Conservative. Just hours after the no confidence vote was announced, he announced via Twitter at 1113 hours that he has resigned as "anti-corruption tsar" and has called for Boris Johnson to go.

Letter to Boris Johnson

Bath - Wera Hobhouse MP - the only non-Conservative MP as a Liberal Democrat (excluding fake "independent" David Warburton) and therefore has no vote.

North East Somerset - Jacob Rees-Mogg MP. Supporting Boris Johnson. Minister. Supporter of Brexit. Issued a statement via Twitter in the morning.

"The time for navel-gazing has ended. The British people gave Boris a mandate, Tory MPs would be wise to accept it."

Wells - James Heappey MP - Conservative Minister and therefore likely to vote to support Boris Johnson. UPDATE (1411 hours, 6/6/22). Heappey has, as we predicted, tweeted:

"I’ve been uncomfortable with much of what’s emerged about events in No 10 during Covid lockdowns. But UK faces enormous economic & security challenges that can’t be wished away. This is time for Govt to deliver not squabble amongst itself. I’ll be supporting the PM this evening."

Somerton and Frome - David Warburton MP - "Independent" (Conservative Whip suspended due to investigation into misconduct) - will not be able to vote.

Bridgwater and West Somerset - Ian Liddell-Grainger MP - Conservative. In a Statement, he called for Johnson to go:

"I have already made my view clear both to the Prime Minister himself and to the chairman of the 1922 committee, a member of which will be submitting my vote."

“I believe he should step down for the good of the country. That is the only way to resolve this intolerable situation which is damaging both the Government’s ability to govern and the UK’s reputation on the world stage."

Taunton Deane - Rebecca Pow MP - Conservative Minister and therefore likely to vote to support Boris Johnson.

Yeovil - Marcus Fysh MP - Conservative and not a Minister. Unknown position but may well abstain.

So in Somerset, the vote is likely to be split between those wanting to hang onto their positions as ministers or with other positions granted by Boris Johnson, and/or ideological views on Brexit, and those who have publicly called for Boris Johnson to go.

Conclusion

Based on the assessments above:

For:

Fox, Rees-Mogg, Heappey, Pow

Against:

Penrose, Liddell-Grainger

No Vote/Abstain:

Hobhouse (Lib Dem), Warburton (Suspended Tory), Fysh

Whether the Somerset MPs are a representative sample of how the vote will turn out, remains to be seen when the result is announced around 8pm on Monday 6th June 2022.

If the above 2:1 split translates into votes, Johnson will survive by (very) roughly the same result as Theresa May did. But May only lasted six months after the vote. John Major lasted only until the landslide Labour election victory in 1997.

More detail and explanation can be found on the Institute for Government website here.

Who are Somerset Independents?

Somerset Independents puts residents first. We are a campaign group formed to stand up for residents.

Somerset Independents covers all and any part of the traditional County of Somerset. 

This includes the above Parliamentary constituencies and the council areas of North Somerset Council, Bath and North East Somerset Council, Mendip District Council, Somerset West and Taunton Council, South Somerset District Council, Sedgemoor District Council and Somerset County Council.

Join Somerset's own campaign group and political party to celebrate Somerset's past, protect Somerset's present and prepare Somerset for the future.

We can be contacted at the link here and via Twitter @SomerInds, via Facebook at the Somerset Independents page and via email at somerinds [at] gmail.com.